India's sugar output set to fall next season due to El Niño drought

India's sugar production is expected to decline next season due to drought conditions linked to El Niño, raising concerns about tighter supplies from the world's second-largest producer and consumer of the commodity.

Industry traders and analysts estimate total output will fall to between 29 and 31 million tonnes in the year ending September 2027, down from previous levels reported by the Indian Sugar Mills Association.

These forecasts highlight a 15% drop in India's monsoon rainfall compared to normal, a shortfall that could deepen the global market deficit by around 260,000 tonnes, according to the International Sugar Organization.

Concerns over lower harvests have driven raw sugar futures up by 30% in New York, prompting Indian authorities to intervene in local markets to curb inflation.