Turkish inflation seen in single digits in October, around 12% by year end

Turkey's annual inflation isexpected to have remained in single digits for a second consecutive month inOctober to stand at 8.6%, partly reflecting so-called base effects given highprice increases a year ago, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

Inflation surged to more than 25%in October 2018 in the wake of a currency crisis in which the lira plummetedagainst the dollar, but it has since declined due to higher interest rates andlagging economic activity.

In September the consumer priceindex (CPI) fell to single digits for the fist time in more than two years. ForOctober the median estimate in a Reuters poll of 20 economists was 8.6%, withforecasts ranging between 9.5% and 7.7%.

Finance Minister Berat Albayraksaid on Thursday inflation may fall to around 8% in October.

For the monthly rate, estimatesof 19 economists ranged between 2.9% and 1.2%, with a median of 2.02%.

For the year as a whole – in thiscase based on responses from 16 economists – the average estimate has fallen to12.3% from 13.3% last month. That's after inflation is expected to return todouble-digits in the last two months of the year as base effects wear off.

The Turkish Statistical Instituteis due to announce October inflation data on Nov. 4 at 0700 GMT.

Albaraka Turk economist LutfullahBingol said the downward trend in the annual CPI is expected to continue inOctober, partly due to food prices rising less quickly, though other factorsmeant prices rose more sharply month-on-month than in September.