Brent crude rises 1.11% to $97.35 amid Middle East supply fears

Oil prices continued to rise on Monday, driven by mounting concerns over prolonged disruptions to Middle East supplies following renewed attacks between the United States and Iran on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and other areas.

Brent crude rose 1.11% to $97.35 a barrel, while Brent futures gained 52 cents, or 0.54%, to $96.80 a barrel as of 23:54 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 66 cents, or 0.72%, to $92.14 a barrel.

Last week, Brent crude surged 7.8%, while WTI gained nearly 10%, after the US and Iran resumed attacks, leading to reduced oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which previously handled one-fifth of global oil supply before the conflict.

US Central Command said its forces targeted three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, including one off Kharg Island near Iran's main oil export terminal.

Meanwhile, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy announced it had targeted three unauthorized oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as three US vessels in various locations.

Marisk, a maritime intelligence firm, said Saturday's attacks marked a significant escalation in the maritime conflict, noting that commercial tankers are now being used as tools of economic pressure, blurring the line between military confrontation and commercial shipping.

Data from Kpler showed that the daily average of commodity vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 10 over the past ten days, the lowest level since May.

The OPEC+ alliance decided to maintain its oil production policy unchanged for October during a meeting held on Sunday, as the group must agree on new quotas before determining its next production steps.

Analysts at ANZ Bank indicated that the most likely scenario is a prolonged standoff with calculated military moves by the US and Iran, which could delay a full recovery of Middle East supplies.

They expect exports to remain constrained until late 2026, with flow levels not returning to pre-war rates until late Q1 or early Q2 of 2027.