Iran unlikely to be swayed by US military threats, analyst says

Political analyst Ehab Abbas said Iran is fully aware of the nature of US military preparations and will not be deceived by any attempt to use the threat of military strikes to gain leverage in negotiations.

Speaking to Al Arabiya FM, Abbas added that Iran has previously encountered such strategies from the United States and will therefore approach current US moves with caution. He noted, however, that the situation would be different if the current preparations are genuinely intended for military action.

He explained that the key question now concerns the timing of any potential US military move, and whether it would occur before or after the US midterm congressional elections, which are scheduled in about 25 days.

Abbas pointed out that US President Donald Trump currently enjoys significant political and legislative support, with the Republican Party controlling the House of Representatives. However, this could change after the elections, as polls suggest Republicans may lose one or both chambers of Congress, potentially posing major legislative challenges for Trump.

Abbas predicted that Trump is likely to avoid launching a military operation at this time, as it could lead to higher fuel, energy, and commodity prices just as American voters head to the polls.

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He concluded that, in his view, current US moves are part of preparations and signaling the use of force, stressing that "this will not fool Iran."