Iran expert: Divided decision-making in Tehran hampers US talks

Iran affairs researcher Aref Nasr has said that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei granting the Iranian government authority over negotiations with the United States does not necessarily reflect an organized division of roles within the regime. Instead, it reveals a split between a government faction favoring compromise and a military wing pushing to militarize the talks, further complicating prospects for rapprochement between Tehran and Washington.

Speaking during an appearance on FM Radio, Nasr explained that Iran’s Supreme National Security Council is divided over the negotiations: one camp, represented by the government, seeks a settlement, while the other, led by military figures such as Mohsen Rezaei and Ahmad Vahidi, advocates a more militarized approach to the talks.

He clarified that Iranian parliament member Masoud Pezeshkian’s comments regarding the government’s authority stem from the Islamabad memorandum signed about three months ago. Nasr said the Supreme Leader, through this memorandum, delegated responsibility to the government to continue negotiations and sign any agreement.

However, Nasr dismissed the idea that Pezeshkian’s statements signal an imminent deal with Washington, saying: “I see the opposite entirely. There appears to be internal fragmentation,” adding that the military’s priorities seem more prominent within Iran, given the differing perspectives among regime factions on how to handle the crisis.

Nasr noted that the demands of Iran’s military wing, combined with American demands, make rapprochement difficult at this stage. He pointed out that efforts by Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf to mediate between the Revolutionary Guard and the government have failed to bridge the divide.

Regarding a message sent to Mohsen Rezaei, Nasr explained it was not addressed to him as Secretary-General of the Supreme National Security Council, but rather as a representative of the Supreme Leader, highlighting his close relationship and direct communication with Khamenei.

Nasr added that this distinction relates to Rezaei’s position within Iran’s decision-making structure, noting that the US president or vice president has attempted to communicate directly with the Supreme Leader, since the Iranian government, despite its willingness to negotiate, does not hold the final say.

Nasr linked the multiplicity of decision-making centers in Tehran to a previous statement by former US President Donald Trump, who said he did not know whom Washington was dealing with in Iran. Nasr argued that the Iranian regime has become multi-headed, reflecting the overlap between political and military decision-makers.

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Commenting on whether this multiplicity serves as a defensive measure to reduce the risk of Iranian leaders being targeted in the event of renewed conflict, Nasr said that security and military figures tend to remain hidden, unlike government officials who usually appear at public meetings and events.