Trump brokers Russia-Ukraine energy truce amid Kyiv skepticism

Former US President Donald Trump has announced a surprise agreement between Russia and Ukraine to halt attacks on oil refineries in both countries, a move that has raised questions about the prospects for success given ongoing Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and rising tensions between Washington and Kyiv.

The announcement came a day after Trump called for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to step down, and less than 48 hours after he revealed an understanding with Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding Russian diesel supplies to US and global markets in exchange for easing some sanctions on Moscow.

In a post on his Truth Social platform on Sunday, Trump said both sides had agreed to a ceasefire, urging them to honor the deal and refrain from violations, but he did not provide clear details on implementation mechanisms or guarantees for its continuation.

Zelensky demands mutual truce and real guarantees

For his part, Zelensky said he was surprised by Trump’s announcement but indicated Ukraine would accept the truce provided it is mutual and backed by real guarantees, including actions by Kyiv’s allies—especially the United States—against Moscow if the agreement is breached, according to the UK’s Guardian newspaper.

The Axios website quoted the Ukrainian president as saying: “If President Trump has negotiated with Putin, tell us when the ceasefire begins. We are ready and will accept it.”

Zelensky had previously rejected US demands to halt Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries, insisting that Moscow must first stop its assaults on his country’s energy infrastructure.

With no clear signs of Russian compliance with the announced truce, the Ukrainian president voiced doubts about Moscow’s intentions, pointing to continued Russian strikes targeting energy facilities.

Zelensky said Russian forces targeted Thermal Power Plant No. 5 in Kharkiv in eastern Ukraine as part of more than 200 attacks on electricity generation and transmission facilities over the past week, along with 17 other strikes on gas and oil installations, according to the Guardian.

Rising tensions between Trump and Zelensky

These developments come amid increasing strains between Washington and Kyiv, which escalated after Trump announced a relaxation of sanctions on Russian diesel exports—a move he said would help lower fuel prices in the US and global markets ahead of next month’s US midterm congressional elections.

The Guardian described the public standoff between the two sides as one of the most serious disputes in US-Ukrainian relations since last year’s Oval Office confrontation, when Trump openly criticized Zelensky.

Separately, the Financial Times, citing unnamed European officials, reported that the US is threatening to halt the procurement system supplying weapons to Ukraine in an effort to pressure Kyiv to stop its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.

Economic incentives for Moscow, pressure on Kyiv

Similarly, the New York Times reported that US officials have offered the Kremlin economic incentives in exchange for a ceasefire, including, according to reports, the release of billions of dollars in frozen Russian sovereign assets and reconsideration of a plan to allow the sale of parts of Russian energy giant Lukoil.

Ukrainian officials believe the US administration is pressuring Kyiv to give up one of its most effective tools against Moscow without demanding similar concessions from the Russian side.

In recent weeks, Ukraine has intensified attacks on oil facilities, depots, and data centers inside Russia as part of efforts to damage Russian infrastructure and the economy.

Meanwhile, Moscow continues its aerial campaign against Ukrainian territory, with Zelensky saying Russian attacks involve thousands of aerial bombs and drones, casting doubt on the possibility of a genuine de-escalation in the energy sector.

While some hope that halting attacks on energy facilities could ease pressure on global oil and fuel markets, the chances of success for the US initiative remain unclear amid a lack of announced guarantees for implementation and ongoing disputes over the terms of the truce and required concessions from both sides.