UN report warns of rising risk of large-scale global war

A United Nations report on global risks has revealed a sharp increase in concerns over the outbreak of a large-scale war worldwide, with such conflict emerging in recent years as one of humanity's greatest threats. The report is based on a survey of 1,300 representatives from governments, international organizations, civil society, the private sector, and academia across the globe.

Participants assessed 28 political, economic, environmental, social, and technological risks, focusing on their likelihood, impact, and the international community’s preparedness. The report found that the risk of large-scale war jumped 16 places in the ranking of top threats compared to 2024, marking the biggest rise among all risks.

Some 36% of respondents said the consequences of such a war could affect a large segment of humanity within a year, while 76% expected this within the next seven years. They noted that the international community remains underprepared for this type of conflict, with large-scale war ranking among the top six risks according to four criteria: significance, imminence, interconnectedness, and lack of preparedness.

Global risk perceptions have shifted notably over the past two years, with geopolitical threats, wars, and the erosion of the rule of law now at the forefront—displacing environmental threats, misinformation, and pandemics, which topped concerns in 2024. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres noted that political risks have become more urgent and significant, while institutional capacity to respond has declined.

Regional shifts in threat rankings

The report showed that large-scale wars and geopolitical tensions entered the top ten threats in all seven regions surveyed, and ranked among the top five in six regions. Weapons of mass destruction were listed as major threats in Central and South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and Oceania. In East and Southeast Asia, concerns focused on a potential global financial crisis, the negative impacts of artificial intelligence, and the concentration of power among technology companies.

Conversely, pandemics and biological risks have dropped out of the top ten threats in all regions, after being among the most significant risks in several parts of the world two years ago.

Interconnected global risks and response challenges

The report stressed that global threats are interconnected, with participants identifying resource shortages, economic fragmentation, misinformation, and weak multilateral institutions as factors that fuel geopolitical tensions and raise the risk of war. Artificial intelligence and emerging technologies were highlighted as growing dangers, especially given the international system’s limited readiness to address them.

Despite shifting priorities, failure to address climate change remains the leading global risk, alongside concerns over resource scarcity. Researchers warned that a lower ranking for some environmental threats does not mean they are less dangerous, but rather reflects changing perceptions of their urgency and importance.

Barriers to effective risk management

Participants identified weak governance mechanisms, political discord, and a lack of trust and accountability as major obstacles to risk management. They also pointed to insufficient funding, with 86% saying that risk mitigation financing is inadequate, hindering efforts to address natural hazards and the potential collapse of international institutions.

The report emphasized that its findings reflect risk perceptions rather than predictions, but these perceptions influence political decisions and resource allocation. Participants agreed that intergovernmental cooperation is the most effective way to prevent such threats, as no single entity can tackle them alone. The report called for evidence-based approaches to guide choices toward a safer path for current and future generations.