US intelligence: Iran escalating to prolong conflict, undermine Trump before midterms

US intelligence reports have warned of a possible Iranian escalation in the Middle East, as Tehran grows more confident in its ability to strike regional targets and seeks to prolong the conflict to exhaust the United States and undermine President Donald Trump ahead of the midterm elections, according to The New York Times.

The reports indicate that Iran has recently carried out attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and on US forces, while Washington has responded with strikes inside Iran that resulted in both military and civilian casualties.

Although military exchanges have so far been limited, sources suggest Tehran is considering a larger escalation, taking advantage of a deeper understanding of its military strengths.

US officials confirmed that Iran may repeat attacks similar to those in July, when US bases in the Middle East were targeted, resulting in the deaths of three Americans in Jordan. They also noted cyberattacks affecting more than 100 water systems in the United States. While water supplies were not disrupted, the attacks caused operational disturbances and precautionary warnings.

Officials explained that Iran-linked hackers have regrouped and continue to target energy infrastructure, with cyberattacks remaining a preferred method for Iran to undermine US public support for the war.

In a press briefing, US Vice President JD Vance downplayed the threat, stating that Iran's ability to disrupt daily life in America is limited, but acknowledged Tehran's ongoing attempts to target the US.

For his part, Trump had predicted a swift victory when the war began on February 28, but critics argue that the US administration underestimated Iran's resilience.

Representative Jason Crow noted that Iran's leadership has become more unified and possesses stockpiles of missiles and drones, while also strengthening its control over the Strait of Hormuz.

The reports suggest Iran is betting on prolonging the conflict until the US midterm elections, leveraging the war's impact and rising fuel prices to pressure Trump and the Republican Party.

Tehran is also seeking to spread propaganda aimed at weakening Trump electorally through online and media networks.

Meta reported that Iranian accounts were involved in producing anti-Republican content on Facebook and Instagram, while Iranian media published more than 1,200 articles about Trump and the elections within two weeks, portraying the war as a political burden for him.

Representative Josh Gottheimer concluded that Iran has managed to overcome the effects of strikes and economic sanctions, benefiting from the Iranian government's disregard for its people's suffering.