Brent crude price forecast for 2026 tops $90 per barrel for first time since May

Amid ongoing disruptions affecting energy flows from the Middle East and undermining expectations for regional stability, analysts have raised their oil price forecasts for 2026, with the average price of Brent crude projected to exceed $90 per barrel for the first time since May.

According to Reuters, a survey conducted this month among experts and economic analysts showed that Brent crude is expected to average $92.88 per barrel in 2026, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is forecast to average $86.60 per barrel. Last month's estimates put Brent at $89.05 and WTI at $83.90 per barrel.

Tobias Keller, an analyst at UniCredit, said: "Constraints on oil flows from the Middle East, tight product markets, and declining inventories indicate that a full return to pre-war production levels, trade routes, and shipping conditions will take longer, increasing the risk of further price rises."

The US-Israeli war with Iran, which began in late February, pushed Brent crude prices up to $126.41 per barrel in April. The conflict's impact has spread across the Middle East, putting the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20 percent of global energy supplies passed before the conflict—at the center of the turmoil.

Data collected by a Washington-based research center monitoring global maritime security since 2017 showed that October saw the highest number of attacks on commercial vessels in the strait and adjacent waterways.

In the futures markets, near-term Brent and WTI contracts continue to trade at a premium to longer-dated contracts, a price structure reflecting tight short-term supplies.

Survey participants noted that rising oil prices are increasingly weighing on consumption. HSBC estimated that disruptions led to a loss of about five million barrels per day in demand during the second quarter, with most of the decline concentrated in low-income countries.

Analysts expect demand to decline in 2026 before rebounding the following year. The average forecast indicates a decrease of about 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, compared to an estimated increase of 2.2 million barrels per day in 2027. However, the survey suggested that this drop in demand will not be enough to offset the supply shortfall caused by ongoing disruptions.

Participants forecast a supply deficit of about 2.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026. Most expect the market to shift to a surplus in 2027 if oil flows from the Gulf improve, with the average estimate at around 290,000 barrels per day.

At the same time, participants widely expect the OPEC+ alliance to avoid major policy changes in the near term.

Seven key OPEC+ members are scheduled to hold an online meeting on Sunday, and three sources told Reuters that oil production targets for December are likely to remain unchanged.