Divisions over Ukraine and Middle East stall G20 foreign ministers' consensus in Atlanta

The G20 foreign ministers' meeting, held over two days in Atlanta, United States, on October 30 and 31, is facing significant challenges due to deep divisions over the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, according to diplomats and experts. They noted that these disagreements could prevent the issuance of unified measures or statements during the gathering.

The United States, which holds the rotating presidency of the group this year, is seeking to focus allies' efforts on addressing trade imbalances and building a coalition to counter China’s dominance in critical minerals. However, the ongoing wars and their economic impacts remain the primary concern for many G20 members.

The US did not invite South Africa to the ministerial meeting, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will attend, further heightening tensions. Lavrov's presence has sparked debate even over the traditional group photo, with some European officials suggesting two separate photos—one with Lavrov and one without.

Heidi Crebo-Rediker, former chief economist at the US State Department during the Obama administration, said that strategic competition between the US and China has caused greater division within the group than ever before. She noted that the G7 countries no longer agree on a unified stance before joining the G20, as they once did.

A US State Department official said the Atlanta meeting will focus on energy challenges and supply chains essential for artificial intelligence development. The official added that four previous ministerial meetings this year achieved some consensus, but much work remains before the leaders’ summit scheduled for Miami from December 14 to 16.

US Senator Marco Rubio, who is hosting the meeting, defended the "Pax Silica" initiative, which aims to unite countries concerned about China’s dominance of rare earth elements and critical minerals. However, experts pointed out that any concrete action in this direction may be delayed, citing a US-led statement on industrial overcapacity that was signed by only a few trade ministers after the group failed to reach consensus.

Crebo-Rediker emphasized the difficulty of reaching full agreement on major strategic issues typically on the agenda. Meanwhile, Eileen Dizhinsky, head of the Center on Economic and Financial Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, suggested that issuing statements from purpose-driven coalitions may be the best way forward. She said the measure of success for the meeting is the US’s ability to build cooperation with partners, even if consensus among all members is impossible. She also noted that the security alliance comprising the US, India, Japan, and Australia will also meet in Atlanta in the coming days.

Regarding Russia, recent decisions by US President Donald Trump—such as a diesel purchase deal and lifting some sanctions—could influence discussions, along with Ukraine’s problems with Starshield satellite services. Crebo-Rediker stated that the US, and Trump in particular, have taken a stance very favorable to Russian President Vladimir Putin and against Ukraine, even if this is not openly discussed.

Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, announced she would call for increased support for Ukraine and push for progress on accountability measures through the special court and claims commission, stressing the need to hold Russia accountable.

A G20 diplomat said that some countries, such as Canada, Mexico, India, and others negotiating trade agreements with the US, may seek to avoid confrontation during the meeting.

The meetings come after US Commerce Department data showed the American economy grew at its fastest pace in a year in the third quarter, driven by artificial intelligence investments, despite rising oil prices due to the Middle East war and slowdowns or contractions in other economies. The meetings also precede the US midterm congressional elections on November 3, which could leave Trump without a majority in either chamber, amid reports the US may launch new strikes on Iran.

Although Ukraine was not invited to the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting in Atlanta, Trump is making efforts to broker a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war. Technical-level trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the US are expected to take place in Abu Dhabi next month.