US midterm elections: key races, poll numbers, and party control

The US midterm elections will be held on November 3, with Americans casting ballots to shape the final two years of President Donald Trump's term, even though his name will not appear on the ballot. The results, coming at the midpoint of the presidential term, could redraw the political map in Congress and determine which party holds power, as well as decide governorships in many states and thousands of state-level offices.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election every two years, and a party needs 218 seats for a majority. Currently, Democrats need to gain three seats to take control, as Republicans won a 220-215 majority in 2022. However, deaths, resignations, and party switches have left the chamber with 218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one independent, and two vacant seats. This means Republicans can afford to lose only two seats before losing their majority.

In the Senate, 35 seats are being contested—33 in the regular six-year cycle, plus special elections in Florida and Ohio. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, counting two independents who caucus with Democrats. Democrats need to win four seats to reach 51 and take control; if the chamber is split 50-50, the Vice President’s vote would be decisive.

Governors will be elected in 36 states—about 75% of all states—and 6,139 seats in state legislatures are up for grabs in 88 of the nation’s 99 legislative chambers.

Polls show Democrats leading Republicans by 53% to 41% among registered voters, according to a PBS News, NPR, and Marist poll conducted September 14-15. The same poll found Democrats with a significant lead among independents, 57% to 32% over Republicans.

President Trump’s approval ratings ranged from 32% to 41% in several major polls during September. A Reuters/Ipsos poll last week put his approval at 31% among US adults, the lowest of his political career, while Marist found 39% and NBC News 41% among registered voters. Despite differences in methodology, none of the polls indicate strong popular support for Trump that would benefit his party’s candidates.

According to an NBC News poll, 55% of registered voters said Trump’s policies harmed the economy, versus 26% who said they helped improve it.

According to AdImpact, only the California governor primary is held, making November’s gubernatorial race the most expensive in history.

This year’s congressional primaries saw 2,497 candidates—the highest since at least 2014—with 2,232 running for House seats. On November 3, there will be 44 House races featuring rematches between the same major party candidates who competed for the seat in 2024. At the state and local level, there are 474 rematch races nationwide.