US weighs military options for Iran strikes after midterms

The US military has prepared options for possible strikes on Iran after the congressional midterm elections, a move that could reignite a conflict that has persisted for more than eight months.

A source familiar with the plans told The Hill, on condition of anonymity, that US Central Command (CENTCOM), which oversees American forces in the Middle East, has drawn up plans for additional strikes on Iran, pending White House approval.

Another source with knowledge of the planning said CENTCOM has presented several strike options to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

The source, also speaking anonymously, said President Donald Trump will keep all options open until a final decision is made.

Gregory Brew, an Iran expert at the Eurasia Group, told The Hill on Friday: “It seems highly likely to me that the US will resume military strikes on Iran after the midterm elections.”

Harrison Mann, a former executive at the Middle East and Africa Regional Center of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said Trump has two escalation paths if he decides to attack Iran: resuming strikes on military and political targets deep inside the country, or targeting civilian infrastructure and the energy sector if the Israeli military joins the operations.

Mann explained to The Hill on Friday: “I emphasize deep strikes, because since April, the US has barely attacked any targets except those on Iran’s coasts. It appears they have not flown drones over Iranian territory, except perhaps for one or two strikes.”

He added: “This is likely intended to limit the risk of escalation, and also because the US has not been willing to risk losing more aircraft.”

Mann continued: “The other path is not necessarily an exclusive alternative, and could become more likely if Israeli forces are involved. It would involve direct strikes on civilian infrastructure or energy facilities, or on universities, police stations, and other civilian sites, as the Israelis did at the start of the conflict.”

When The Hill requested comment from the US Department of Defense, a Pentagon official said, “The department’s mission is to prepare military options and present them to the president.”

The official added: “We do not speculate on hypothetical scenarios or future operations.”

CENTCOM did not respond to The Hill’s request for comment.

Stalled negotiations and rising pressure

The push for military action comes as the US government seeks major concessions from the Islamic Republic amid faltering diplomatic talks. Trump has warned of possible strikes on Tehran after the midterm elections in November, when Republicans aim to retain their congressional majority.

The Trump administration believes Iran’s economy is weakening daily, as US sanctions and a naval blockade continue to erode economic stability and drive up inflation.

Brew said: “The main idea is to use force to intensify the pressure already on Iran, forcing it to surrender and reach a deal that allows the US to exit the war.”

He added that “frustration” over the lack of diplomatic progress is one reason Washington is considering military strikes.

He continued: “The Iranians are not backing down or showing flexibility, maintaining a firm negotiating stance for several weeks.”

Hegseth visited US forces in the Middle East on Monday, coinciding with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s presence in Israel.

Speaking to reporters Tuesday in Wisconsin, Hegseth praised Israel as “a good partner”: “We’ve worked closely with the Israeli military for a long time. They have significant capabilities, and we value their contributions to ensuring Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon.”

Some regional analysts believe a renewed US-Israeli strike campaign may not force Iran’s leadership to make concessions, even though the previous campaign depleted Pentagon stocks of interceptor missiles and advanced offensive systems, raised fuel prices, and caused turmoil in the Middle East.

Mann, a former US Army major, said: “No level of US or Israeli strikes can force Iran to change course at this stage. Iranian leaders see themselves not only facing a threat to their regime’s survival, but to their own personal survival as well.”

He added: “They increasingly realize they hold leverage and now have the upper hand, which they want to use to extract concessions from Trump.”

He continued: “I think we have already clearly seen the limits of what US and Israeli strikes can achieve. They have not destroyed Iran’s military capabilities or eliminated its political leadership, despite assassinating key figures.”

During the active phase of the war, US and Israeli forces destroyed and damaged Iranian missile launchers and storage sites. Last month, the Pentagon said US forces destroyed more than 90% of Iran’s ballistic missiles, along with naval industrial facilities and drones.

Trump has previously backed away from approving strikes on Iran after the Pentagon prepared target packages.

US military presence bolstered

More than 50,000 US troops are currently deployed in the Middle East, alongside around 20 warships, some of which help enforce the naval blockade in the Arabian Sea.

Two US aircraft carrier strike groups are in the region, and the USS Theodore Roosevelt, a Nimitz-class carrier, is heading to CENTCOM’s area of responsibility, possibly to replace the USS George Washington.

The Pentagon has also sent 4,000 Marines and sailors aboard three warships to the Middle East, led by the USS Makin Island, a Wasp-class amphibious assault ship, as part of an amphibious readiness group.

The additional ships and deployed forces could give the US president broader options for amphibious landings and other military operations.

Trump has also hinted at the possibility of targeting Pickaxe Mountain, near the damaged Natanz uranium enrichment facility in the Zagros Mountains. However, experts warn that the facility’s depth—up to 2,000 feet beneath granite—could prevent even the most powerful US bunker-buster bombs from reaching it.

On Wednesday, the US State Department ordered non-essential government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia amid ongoing attacks on the Kingdom by Iran-backed Houthis.

Intelligence warnings of threats to Americans

Meanwhile, US intelligence has concluded that Iranian plots to target and kill American officials in the Middle East have “significantly increased” and reached “advanced stages,” according to a briefing from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Clayton wrote in a memo to Rubio, who also serves as Trump’s national security adviser: “We have received intelligence through multiple channels indicating that Iran has greatly intensified its efforts to target US personnel.”

He added: “Iranian plans for lethal operations against American citizens have reached advanced stages, both in the Middle East and in some other countries.”

Brew said Iranian leaders have indicated, both publicly and privately, that any response to US or Israeli attacks would be “bigger,” “more aggressive,” and “different” from earlier this year.

Tehran is threatening to target US bases, warships, oil pipelines, refineries, and American allies in the Gulf, while retaining drone and missile capabilities.

The prospect of renewed hostilities in the region, previously reported by The New York Times, comes as oil prices have surged to their highest levels since May.

Brent crude topped $117 a barrel on Friday, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate traded at around $102.

Brew said: “In particular, regional officials and members of Iran’s leadership are clearly stating that undersea cables in the Arabian Gulf, AI data centers, and technology infrastructure will all be considered targets if Iran is attacked.”

Possible strikes over the weekend

Tom Barrack, US ambassador to Turkey and Trump’s special envoy to Syria and Iraq, pointed to the possibility of military action against Iran over the weekend.

In a Friday interview with Lebanese-Australian businessman and political commentator Mario Nawfal, Barrack said: “Could a strike happen over the weekend? Absolutely. The president has been clear; I’m relaying US policy. He’s very open to a deal, ready for it, and accessible. We’ve been at the negotiating table for many months.”

When Trump was asked Friday about Barrack’s comments, he turned to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and said: “That was my ambassador... I think he’s a very influential man,” then added, “If that’s the case, I don’t know about it.”

At a campaign rally Friday in Fort Myers, Florida, Trump said: “We may carry out another small operation called ‘Epic Fury,’ or they may agree to a deal. If they’re smart, they’ll just say, ‘Let’s get to work.’ I doubt they will, because maybe they’re not smart.”

When The Hill asked the White House for comment on plans to strike Iran, the office referred to the president’s remarks to reporters on Friday.

Trump said Wednesday that the US is not negotiating with Iran, leaving the door open for renewed military action.

He told reporters: “Something will happen, one way or another, fairly soon. Most people think it will be after the elections, and we’ll see what happens. But I’ll say this: What we’ve done with Iran is remarkable.”