El Niño persists but no guarantee of exceptional Saudi rainfall, expert says

Abdullah Al-Misnad, Vice President of the Weather and Climate Society, said that El Niño conditions are currently present, with a high likelihood of persisting and intensifying. However, he noted this does not necessarily mean Saudi Arabia will experience an exceptional season of heavy rainfall.

Al-Misnad explained that rainfall in the Arabian Peninsula is influenced by several climatic and atmospheric factors, including the Indian Ocean, jet streams, low-pressure systems, sources of moisture, and the specific type of El Niño event. He stressed that while El Niño is an important factor, it is not the only one.

He added that rainfall chances may increase in some regions, especially when moisture and suitable weather conditions are present. However, the strength of El Niño in the Pacific Ocean does not automatically translate into an exceptional rainy season in Saudi Arabia. He called for distinguishing between scientific forecasts and media reports.

Al-Misnad emphasized that assessing the rainfall season requires monitoring ongoing atmospheric and climatic developments and forecast updates. He noted that science deals in probabilities, while the media—especially social media—often presents outcomes as certainties.