UN report urges 45% emissions cut by 2035 to limit warming to 1.5°C

The 'Emissions Gap Report 2026: The Point of Return', released by the United Nations Environment Programme, warns that global warming is set to exceed the 1.5°C threshold. The report stresses that countries must take urgent action to reduce emissions in order to limit this overshoot and return to the internationally agreed target by the end of this century.

According to the UN Information Centre, the report recommends minimizing the extent of the overshoot, with peak warming—expected around mid-century—kept between 1.7°C and 1.8°C. To achieve this, emissions must be cut by 18% by the end of this decade, 45% by 2035, and 69% five years after that, compared to 2025 levels.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, in a message accompanying the report, said, “Overshooting the threshold does not mean giving up. We can still keep this overshoot as low and as short as possible, and work to bring temperatures back below 1.5°C by the end of the century.”

The report notes there are now greater opportunities than ever to accelerate climate action. Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, which set the 1.5°C goal, the renewable energy sector has seen significant growth, while the expansion of coal and oil supplies has been slower than expected. Climate policies have also helped reduce emissions in many regions.

Inger Andersen, Executive Director of the UN Environment Programme, highlighted the consequences of inaction, stating, “Every fraction of a degree and every extra year above 1.5°C increases the severity of climate impacts and risks, such as deadly floods, heatwaves, and wildfires that many countries have experienced this year.” She called for mobilizing all efforts to limit peak warming and return to 1.5°C by century’s end, emphasizing that “this is possible.”

The UN report warns that if current policies continue, global warming could reach 2.8°C this century, with the potential for further increases. Under the Paris Agreement, countries are required to submit national climate action plans. Even if all these plans are implemented and similar efforts continue, warming would still be limited to 2.6°C.

The report points out that “these outcomes are worse than last year’s projections, due to the United States’ withdrawal from the agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions. At the same time, new national climate plans submitted since the previous emissions report have made little difference. Nevertheless, it remains possible to return to or stay below the 1.5°C threshold, especially as growing evidence shows how climate policies have helped reduce emissions.”

The report calls for accelerating the implementation of targets set during the first 'global stocktake', a process conducted from 2021 to 2023 to assess collective progress toward the Paris Agreement goals. These targets include tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, shifting away from fossil fuels in energy systems, reducing non-CO2 emissions, halting and reversing deforestation and forest degradation.

According to the report, progress on most of these targets remains insufficient. The second global stocktake—beginning next month at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Antalya, Turkey—could build on previous efforts by reaffirming priority areas for climate mitigation, expanding quantitative targets to 2035 and 2040, and making current action areas more realistic with clearer, measurable goals wherever possible.

The report sets out criteria for aligning with the 'minimum overshoot' scenario, which limits warming above the threshold as much as possible. For example, expanding the goal of moving away from fossil fuels would require reducing the share of coal, oil, and gas in total energy supply by at least 55%, 15%, and 5% respectively by 2035, compared to 2025 levels. By 2040, reductions of at least 75%, 30%, and 35% would be needed.