El Niño could push 49 million more into acute hunger from September

The World Food Programme has warned that El Niño poses a massive threat to global food security, and that a worsening of the phenomenon could push nearly 50 million additional people in the world’s most vulnerable communities into acute hunger, meaning they would be unable to meet their daily nutritional needs.
According to the United Nations Information Centre, the WFP and its partners are ramping up efforts in eight countries to protect some of the most at-risk communities already suffering from poverty, conflict, unemployment, and repeated extreme weather events. Priorities include preparing for floods, droughts, and storms before they occur.
Carl Skau, Acting Executive Director of the WFP, said: “El Niño represents a huge threat to food security for millions who are already vulnerable. The earlier we act to help families prepare for these climate shocks, the more lives and livelihoods we can save.”
The WFP estimates that nearly 49 million additional people could face acute hunger due to El Niño starting in September. The number of people suffering from acute food insecurity could rise by 22 percent, reaching between 225 and 274 million. Central America and Southern Africa are expected to be among the hardest-hit regions. Early action is also cost-effective, with every dollar invested saving between three and seven dollars in future response and losses.
The WFP noted that the 2015-2016 El Niño affected the food security of between 60 and 100 million people. Initial estimates suggest that the 2026-2027 El Niño could push at least 49 million more people into acute food insecurity by the end of next year.
After analyzing 45 countries already experiencing food insecurity—and where El Niño is likely to significantly impact rainfall patterns, temperatures, flooding, and drought—the agency expects the number of people facing acute food insecurity to rise from 225 million to 274 million, an increase of nearly 22 percent.
Some areas of Central America and Southern Africa are expected to bear the brunt of extreme weather impacts, with significant effects also anticipated in East Africa and Southeast Asia.
The WFP stressed that El Niño’s effects vary from country to country; some will experience heavy rainfall, floods, and unusually high temperatures, while others are expected to see worsening conditions during upcoming planting and harvest seasons.
The WFP report found that Latin America and the Caribbean could see one of the largest increases in food insecurity, potentially affecting more than 16 million people. Central America is projected to record the highest relative increase in food insecurity among all regions covered, at up to 83.1 percent.
East and Southern Africa face significant risks, especially in areas dependent on upcoming rainy seasons for food production. Food security could deteriorate for more than 18 million people, a 26 percent increase. Southern African countries are particularly vulnerable, as many households rely on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods.
In Asia and the Pacific, El Niño is expected to worsen food insecurity in several fragile countries, with about 8.2 million people at risk of falling into acute hunger. West and Central Africa are also at risk, with food insecurity likely to rise by 12 percent, affecting around six million more people.
The WFP and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) have called for increased support to at-risk communities, enabling them to prepare for El Niño and protect lives, livelihoods, and food security before crises escalate.
El Niño is expected to peak between September and December, but its effects will continue into 2027 in many countries due to anticipated impacts on harvests. Working with the FAO and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the WFP has developed preventive plans in more than 50 countries and is supporting governments and communities to reduce risks.