Copper market faces supply shortfall from 2028, Bloomberg warns

A report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BloombergNEF) has revealed that the global copper mining sector requires around $332 billion in new investment to avoid a potential supply crisis in the coming decades, amid surging demand for the metal used extensively in clean energy technologies.

The report, released Tuesday under the title "Energy Transition Metals Outlook," stated that the global copper market could face a supply deficit of up to 20 million metric tons by 2050 unless significant investment is made in developing new mines and expanding the capacity of existing ones.

According to Bloomberg, the report indicated that the copper market is likely to enter a supply shortfall starting in 2028, driven by rising global demand and challenges in offsetting declining output from current mines. The report warned that a persistent gap could push prices higher and slow the pace of electrification and clean energy adoption.

Analysts at BloombergNEF expect copper demand related to electrification to increase by 89%, reaching 23.3 million tons by 2050. This would account for more than half of global copper consumption, fueled by growth in electric vehicle production and the expansion of power grids and infrastructure.

The report highlighted that the electric transport sector is the fastest-growing user of copper, as electric cars, trucks, and buses rely on the metal for motors, batteries, high-voltage systems, and charging components.

It added that copper will continue to play a key role in construction, industrial production, and consumer goods, while data centers' needs remain relatively limited compared to total global demand.

The report cautioned that global copper supply could fall by 14.5%, from about 30 million tons in 2026 to 25.7 million tons by 2050, if no additional investments are made. This decline would be due to lower ore quality, reduced output from existing mines, and insufficient recycling to make up the shortfall.

Even if the required $332 billion in investment is secured, the report noted, the supply gap is likely to persist until at least 2043, as developing a new copper mine takes an average of 17 years.

On the global production map, the report predicted that Chile will remain the world's largest producer of mined copper, though its output is expected to fall from 5.8 million tons in 2026 to 4.8 million tons by 2050.

Chile's share of global mine production could rise from 24% to 28% over the same period, the report added, as output in other countries declines more rapidly. This underscores the growing challenges facing the global copper industry in meeting future demand.