WMO warns El Niño will intensify, reaching 'very strong' levels soon

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on Thursday that El Niño is now fully confirmed and is expected to intensify to become a very strong phenomenon in the coming months, with significant impacts on rainfall patterns, temperatures, and associated risks of flooding, drought, and extreme heat.

In a statement, the WMO said forecasts from its Global Producing Centres indicate an "exceptionally high probability, close to 100 percent," that El Niño will persist until February 2027. This is the first time the WMO's update on El Niño/La Niña has been so clear, reflecting strong consensus within its extensive network.

The organization added that, due to exceptionally warm conditions across the tropical Pacific, El Niño is expected to strengthen further in the coming months, reaching a very high intensity before peaking near the end of 2026, with its climate impacts continuing into 2027. 

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said: "El Niño is intensifying before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is entering uncharted waters, and those waters are warming. Sea surface temperatures are rising, there is no letup in global heating, and the world is at the mercy of extreme weather events. The race is on between escalating risks and our commitment to climate action and protecting people. This is a race we must win."

WMO Secretary-General Professor Celeste Saulo said: "El Niño means 'the little boy' in Spanish, but it carries the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies worldwide. We are already witnessing disruption and destruction from droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to worsen as El Niño strengthens."

She added that "this exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparedness and response. In the WMO's fifty-year history, we have never before launched such a large-scale mobilization in cooperation with national meteorological and hydrological services, which are at the forefront of providing forecasts and services to save lives and livelihoods."

The WMO also stressed that its updates on El Niño and La Niña are the world's most reliable source of information for governments and decision-makers. These seasonal forecasts are based on model consensus from the WMO's Global Producing Centres, as well as expertise from national meteorological and hydrological services and climate prediction centers worldwide.