US-China copper rivalry intensifies pressure on global market

The global copper market is experiencing mounting supply chain tensions, as record stockpiling in the United States and rising Chinese demand for the metal highlight intensifying competition between the world’s two largest economies to secure copper supplies.

According to Bloomberg, this rivalry is adding pressure to the global market, with the increasing diversion of copper to the US and China likely to reduce availability in other markets and push prices toward record highs.

Bloomberg added that this scramble for copper threatens to further strain the market and drive prices to new all-time highs, especially as inventories decline and demand grows for the metal, which is essential in the energy, industrial, and technology sectors.

The agency also noted that while copper prices have historically tracked traditional cycles of industrial growth, the current surge to record levels appears to be driven more by structural imbalances in global trade, fueled by uncertainty over US tariff decisions and disruptions in the supply of chemicals used in copper extraction, according to recent international economic reports.

Bloomberg pointed out that copper futures on the London Metal Exchange have surpassed $14,000 per ton, with traders expecting prices could soon exceed the record set earlier this year of over $14,500, following a buying spree in China at the end of January.

Meanwhile, September copper contracts on the US COMEX exchange hit an all-time high of around $6.70 per pound, up nearly 17% since the start of the year and 50% over the past twelve months.

Economists attribute the current momentum to anticipation over a US administration decision on tariffs for refined copper imports, after the June 30 announcement deadline passed without resolution. The proposal would impose a 15% tariff starting January 2027, rising to 30% a year later. This uncertainty has prompted US importers to accelerate stockpiling in preparation for any forthcoming decision.

Customs data showed that more than 200,000 metric tons of copper entered US ports in July alone, marking the largest monthly inflow recorded since 2014.

This copper market tension comes amid broader US escalation over critical minerals. The US Department of Commerce has announced a ban on exports of tungsten scrap and lithium battery waste starting August 27, as part of efforts to boost domestic recycling and reduce reliance on China. The administration has also signaled plans for a 15% tariff and minimum price thresholds on polysilicon products used in solar panels and semiconductors, a move that has unsettled shares of Chinese solar energy companies.