US-China copper rivalry intensifies pressure on global market

Global copper markets are experiencing mounting supply chain tensions, as record stockpiling in the United States coincides with rising Chinese demand for the metal. This development highlights intensifying competition between the world’s two largest economies to secure copper supplies.

According to Bloomberg, this rivalry is adding pressure to the global market, with the possibility that increasing copper shipments to the US and China could reduce availability elsewhere and push prices to record highs.

Bloomberg added that the scramble for copper threatens to further strain the market and drive prices to new records, especially as inventories decline and demand grows for the metal, which is used in energy, industry, and technology sectors.

Bloomberg also noted that while copper prices have historically tracked traditional industrial growth cycles, the current surge toward record levels appears to be driven more by structural imbalances in global trade. These are fueled by uncertainty over US tariff decisions and disruptions in the supply of chemicals used in copper extraction, according to recent international economic reports.

Bloomberg pointed out that copper futures on the London Metal Exchange have surpassed $14,000 per ton, with traders expecting prices could soon exceed the record set earlier this year of over $14,500, following a buying spree in China at the end of January.

Meanwhile, September copper contracts on the US Comex exchange reached an all-time high of around $6.70 per pound, up nearly 17% since the start of the year and 50% over the past twelve months.

Economists attribute the current momentum to anticipation over a US administration decision on tariffs for refined copper imports, after the June 30 announcement deadline passed without resolution. The proposed measure would impose a 15% tariff from January 2027, rising to 30% a year later. This uncertainty has prompted US importers to accelerate stockpiling in preparation for any forthcoming decision.

Customs data showed that more than 200,000 metric tons of copper entered US ports in July alone, marking the largest monthly inflow recorded since 2014.

The copper market tensions come amid broader US actions on critical minerals. The US Department of Commerce has announced a ban on exports of tungsten scrap and lithium battery waste starting August 27, as part of efforts to boost domestic recycling and reduce reliance on China. The administration has also signaled plans for a 15% tariff and minimum price limits on polysilicon products used in solar panels and semiconductors, a move that has unsettled shares of Chinese solar energy companies.