Sharp drop in Hormuz Strait ship traffic amid rising US-Iran tensions
Only four ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, down from a 10-day average of 15, as US-Iran tensions and oil export halts impact global prices.
Key Takeaways
AIPreliminary shipping data on Friday showed that only four bulk cargo vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, a sharp decline from nine the previous day and well below the 10-day average of about 15 ships.
According to data from Kpler, the vessels included two medium-range tankers, one Kamsarmax-class vessel, and one Handysize-class ship as of 04:55 GMT. The number of ships transiting the waterway may fluctuate, as some vessels switch off their transponders while sailing.
These figures do not include ships that may have crossed the strait with their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders turned off to avoid detection. Meanwhile, oil prices on Friday were heading for their biggest weekly gain since mid-July, as escalating tensions and renewed clashes between the US and Iran heightened concerns over supply risks in the Middle East.
Kpler data also showed that only two very large crude carriers (VLCCs) have crossed the strait so far this week. Before the outbreak of hostilities with Iran on February 28, around 125 large commercial vessels—including oil and gas tankers, bulk carriers, and container ships—passed through the strait daily, accounting for one-fifth of the world’s daily crude oil and LNG supply.
The US embargo on Iran-linked shipping has halted Iranian crude exports since it was reimposed in mid-July. Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, said at a Singapore energy summit that observed daily exports of oil and oil products during the conflict ranged between four and six million barrels per day, except for a brief spike during a short-lived agreement between Iran and the US.
Galimberti added that there is currently little common ground between the US and Iran, predicting that reduced flows will persist through November as economic costs from the disruptions continue.
In the Bab al-Mandab Strait on the Red Sea, Kpler data showed 22 cargo ships transited on Thursday, down from 31 the previous day and below the 10-day average of 24.