OPEC+ delays production capacity review amid Middle East conflict

Sources familiar with the matter said OPEC+ has postponed its review to help determine oil production quotas for member states in 2027, after the US-Israeli war on Iran disrupted capacity expansion projects across the Middle East, complicating assessments of future production capabilities.

According to Reuters, OPEC+—which includes members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia—ordered a review of each member state's production capacity in late 2025 before setting 2027 quotas, with the process originally scheduled for completion by the end of September 2026.

The sources said the deadline has already passed, and one added that the review is now expected to be completed by mid-November. OPEC has not yet responded to a request for comment.

OPEC had emphasized last June the importance of completing the assessment of each member's maximum sustainable production capacity to use as a reference for 2027 baseline output levels.

The crisis in the Middle East has delayed projects that were set to boost production capacity in some OPEC+ countries, further complicating estimates of how much oil these nations will be able to produce. The sources noted that some countries have not submitted the required data for the review, without naming specific states.

Reuters reported that this uncertainty further complicates a politically sensitive process for OPEC+, as production capacity estimates are likely to influence the amount each member is allowed to pump.

The review aims to provide an updated, independent assessment of the volumes each member can sustainably produce—a key metric in negotiations over production targets. Delays in capacity expansion plans could affect the assumptions behind these assessments and potentially impact future quotas for member states.