Goldman Sachs: Brent crude could top $120 if Hormuz disruptions persist

Goldman Sachs has said Brent crude prices could surpass $120 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, with an average of around $100 per barrel next year, if supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz persist, according to Reuters.

Oil prices fell today as markets weighed reports of mediation efforts between the United States and Iran. Brent crude futures dropped 0.3% to $88.83 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude for September delivery held steady at $82.49 per barrel. Both benchmarks had reached their highest levels in over a month during the previous session.

According to Reuters, analysts noted in a memo that the latest escalation in the Middle East and a decline in estimated Gulf state oil flows to below 45% of pre-war levels present risks that could push Goldman Sachs' forecasts higher than $80 per barrel for the fourth quarter and $75 for 2027, which had assumed tensions would ease later this year.

It is worth noting that global energy markets have experienced volatility this month, with Brent crude once again rising above $91 per barrel amid renewed tensions between Washington and Tehran, and threats from Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea.