Saudi Arabia drives OPEC output recovery in October, exports near pre-war levels

Saudi Arabia led the recovery in oil production among OPEC members in October, bringing output close to pre-war levels, according to a Bloomberg survey.

The survey showed that OPEC's output rose by 930,000 barrels per day in October to reach 22.8 million barrels per day, about 88% of the volume produced by the same member states in February.

Saudi Arabia accounted for the largest share of the increase, raising its production by 970,000 barrels per day to 9.2 million barrels per day, as it increasingly managed to move tankers through the Strait of Hormuz and load shipments from its Red Sea ports.

The Kingdom’s average oil exports reached 7 million barrels per day last month, nearing pre-war levels, according to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, said at an industry conference in Abu Dhabi earlier this week that the company aims to “maximize production in the fourth quarter.”

Iraq posted the second largest increase, raising output by 140,000 barrels per day to 4.15 million barrels, followed by Kuwait with a 130,000 barrel-per-day rise to 2 million barrels per day, while Nigeria and Iran saw the biggest declines.

Iran’s production fell by 120,000 barrels per day to 1.9 million barrels, the lowest in Bloomberg’s monthly data since 1989, amid a US maritime blockade of its ports. No tankers were detected in satellite images of key loading terminals such as Kharg Island since late August.

The recovery in OPEC supplies helped ease oil prices after last month’s peak, with Brent crude futures dropping this week to about $98 per barrel, as US President Donald Trump signaled a possible de-escalation following his party’s loss in the midterm elections.

OPEC and its allies are reviewing each member’s technical production capacity ahead of setting output targets for 2027 at the ministerial meeting scheduled for November 29.